Lower lending rates and changes to mortgage rules expected to spur activity in GTA housing market this spring Aggregate GTA home price increased 2.3% year over year in Q4 of 2024 TORONTO, January 14, 2025 

According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey released today, the aggregate1 price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 2.3 per cent year over year to $1,149,300 in the fourth quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA decreased slightly by 0.6 per cent. 

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.9 per cent year over year to $1,427,500 in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium dipped 0.7 per cent to $714,600 during the same period.  

“We saw sales activity begin to pick up at the end of 2024, with more showings and more appointments in certain markets. This trend should continue well into 2025. All indicators point to better market conditions for buyers, including first-time homebuyers,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “Declining lending rates and changes to mortgage regulations will make it easier for buyers in Toronto and the surrounding regions to take their time and find the right deal for them. There’s enough inventory right now to keep a lid on price gains, and we shouldn’t see the multiple-offer frenzy that characterized peak markets, except on properties that are priced below market value.” 

Zigelstein noted that activity in the townhome segment is currently leading the market, due to the property type’s relative affordability. Meanwhile, condominium sales have continued to stagnate. 

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 1.7 per cent year over year to $1,099,900 in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a singlefamily detached home rose a modest 1.2 per cent year over year to $1,621,900, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.7 per cent to $681,200. 

“Despite improvements in market conditions, there are many factors at play that could impact 1Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build. consumer confidence, and in turn activity, including political instability in Ottawa, friction with the U.S. government, and a weakening Canadian dollar. For this reason, I don’t anticipate a sudden wave of demand or a huge burst of sales. Rather, a gradual increase in market activity should unfold, which will ultimately be beneficial for both buyers and sellers.” 

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year.  Nationally, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 3.8 per cent year over year to $819,600 in the fourth quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price remained essentially flat, rising a modest 0.5 per cent. While activity began to flourish again in the final months of 2024, following sluggish demand in most major markets over the summer,  home price appreciation remained in check last quarter.  

“There are several converging factors revitalizing Canada’s real estate market and making home ownership more attainable,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Interest rates have fallen sharply in recent months, with further reductions expected in 2025. We believe the Bank of Canada could lower rates by another 100 basis points by year end, steadily improving affordability. At the same time, new mortgage rules are already helping younger Canadians by increasing borrowing power and reducing monthly carrying costs. “While geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the Trump administration’s proposed trade policies may weigh on consumer confidence, residential real estate remains largely insulated from such external pressures in the short term. Canada’s housing market is fundamentally driven by domestic factors. With strong full-time job growth, improving housing supply in key markets, and more accessible financing, we expect healthy activity levels to persist, even as broader economic challenges unfold,” said Soper. 

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.9 per cent year over year to $855,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.5 per cent year over year to $592,700. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, home prices remained virtually flat, with the median price of a single-family detached home increasing a modest 0.6 per cent, and the median price of a condominium rising just 0.4 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.  

An early federal election has become all but certain following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the prorogation of government on January 6th. When the House of Commons resumes in late March, an immediate confidence vote is not expected to pass, triggering an election by mid-spring. The Liberal party is expected to select a new leader by March 9th.   

“With a federal election campaign at home and an aggressive stance on trade expected from the new U.S. administration, Canadians will be understandably nervous. That said, the critical need for housing in Canada transcends political cycles. The next government must prioritize addressing the supply crisis, which affects millions of Canadians seeking affordable shelter and stability for their families,” Soper commented.  

“For more than three decades, we’ve been underbuilding in Canada, a challenge worsened by the pandemic and our rapidly growing population. As we approach the federal election, housing access and affordability will undoubtedly be among the most pressing issues voters will demand candidates address.” 

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2025 Market Survey Forecast,2 projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see the strongest quarterly gains in the first half of 2025 driven by a pull-ahead of spring market activity, followed by more moderate increases in the latter half of the year.